Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
